Spacek - Is the right side wrong?

Have seen recent posts regarding Spacek's defensive woes. Some upset with number of turnovers, while others point to his +10 plus/minus as indication of true value. The truth likely more to do with the following article which speaks to the shortage of RHD in the NHL and how difficult it can be to play D on the opposite side of where one has learned his trade.
The move from left to right...


I believe Hamrlik will not be with Habs next year (5.5m cap space) and the result may have Spacek moving back to natural side of ice. If this occurs, look for Spacek to provide a solid #3 D effort and a healthy return on cap hit.

Keep in mind that Habs drafting has provided a potential solution for the current imbalance (LHD - RHD) as the next three Habs D in Hamilton are RH.

Habs mgmt has wisely shown continued support for OB, as he is the only RHD currently on the team.

Habs brass has also shown good judgement and patience with PK - allowing him the opportunity to dominate in the AHL and work on defense. PK will be a regular on the habs blueline next year and certainly has the confidence to deal with the forthcoming media scrutiny.

When Carle was brought up earlier in the year due to D injuries, he was poised and gave a consistent effort. He was returned to the Dogs and was a force until the season ending shoulder injury. Unsure if he will be part of the Habs future or moved in the summer (previously requested trade), but could help Habs RHD balance / cap situation if considered 6th - 7th D next season.

Weber may need more time in the AHL. He was solid the last two Swiss O games (USA / Belarus).

Mara and MAB will likely not be resigned. Mara has been a defensive liability and MAB likely to earn more than entry level $$ elsewhere next season.

Imagine life on Habs D line if both Spacek and Gorges could move back to natural side of ice.

Markov - OB

Spacek - PK

Gorges - Carle

Gill - alternate as 6th / 7th D based on injuries, defensive need.

Upside > Mentor on each pairing, offense/defense balance, lower D cap$$, LHD-RHD solution, eliminate backhanded dumps up the boards on right side, and reducing over the glass penalties on right side.

Downside > Teams dump puck in on inexperienced right side. Gill expensive 7th D. Two Rookie D.



Thoughts?

"Big Love" The new season ... or same old script ?

Does anyone really believe the Flyers would part with Jeff Carter ?

Yes, we have all read rumors - and the thinking is a #1 goalie might be the difference between where Philly currently sits and a potential cup run (or at least a push to secure playoff entry). It is likely the Flyers will attempt to make a move some time in the season but not wishing to part with Carter, Richards, Giroux, JVR, Carle, or Coburn. Flyers would most likley be grateful to move Briere, Gagne, or Timonen – less enthuiastic if Hartnell was included (all 4 have NMC / NTC clause). Decisions made by Snider / Holmgren will not be easy as they have major Cap issues as well.

The difference between Jeff Carter 08-09 and this yr is shooting % - likely to improve back to career avg 12% in 2nd half .

The Jeff Carter to Habs rumors seem to be just an updated version of the Vinny lust we dealt with in prior years and fans are not likley to see JC in a Habs jersey anytime soon.  Keep in mind also that Big Center Love is an expensive vice and none have been moved in the past five years. See Vinny, Marleau, Thornton, Getzlaf, Kopitar, etc..

I do believe that some minor BG moves may occur by trade deadline as Habs now have numerous players sitting in pressbox or anxiously waiting in Hamilton. Habs also have Cap issues, and at least one significant question to answer ... can BG sign Pleks  before end of season?

• S Kostitsyn - "Mikey Ribs" type issues last year. Work ethic & “entitlement” issues earlier this season. Pouliot looking top six makes a difference here as well. One last opportunity to showcase skills due to big brother's injury.

• M Carle - Demanded trade last year after Weber showed greater potential, and passed by PK Subban on depth chart this year. Carle did look great in the call up this year, is a RD, can be used on PP, and has improved in the defensive end, so decent throw in trade pkg.

• J Halak - Current Habs Mgmt would not be too eager to see highest draft pick in 20 yrs ( CP 5th overall) go onto a cup related career with any team in future. Jaro deserves shot at a starting gig and has been a solid team first guy for years. His agent likely upped ante with comments earlier in the season. With Habs recent move up the standings, would BG wait until trade deadline to move a goalie or gamble further and keep both goalies through RFA, knowing that one would be lost via UFA status after? Reasonable to think  - Habs are not looking Cup parade this year, so maybe this is one key asset that could be moved to improve team going forward.

• M Lapierre – This is a tough one if it occurs. Thinking this is a combination of mismanaged resource and perhaps “entitlement” issues on ML’s part. Has not been used in similar role as last year.. reduced PK time, bounced from line to line, and not meant to play top 6 minutes. Was perhaps our most improved player last season.

• It is possible that Ryan White may have more upside to BG than Ben Maxwell, if so, then consider BM a minor potential trade piece at some point. Most have been hoping that BM would be the next Pleks (2nd line two way C), but a slight step back this season does not help his cause.

Looking at the players noted above and the Habs current cap situation should not lead one to conclude that a big hulking center would be part of any return package. Best bet - draft picks or another Pouliot type reclamation project.

BTW, now that Habs D is mostly healthy, the conversations begin re moving one of our day to day D. I do not think this will occur. Markov is out of the question. Spacek, Gill, and Mara (UFA at yrs end) were just signed – if Habs ever want another free agent signing in Habville, these guys are not going anywhere. OB has size and is the only RD in the bunch. Gorges is our most versatile D. MAB is looking like someone Habs may want to sign in the offseason and use as PP specialist / utility player if $$ are right. This leaves Hammer as only D to consider moving … and give your head a shake if you think Hammer should go. He is one of the main reasons the Habs survived the Markov injury and has been a horse on the blueline this year. With Mara’s contract up at year end ... PK should likely be next in line, moving Spacek back to LD position, with MAB as “7th” D when necessary.

Thoughts?

Drafting prowess ... or not?

“We have Ben Maxwell instead of Lucic. Andrei Kostitsyn instead of Carter, Getzlaff and Parise. Nobody instead of Patrice Bergeron....But Timmins is a genius. He gets us a lot of 4th line slugs”

This from one of the many great posters recently on Habs Inside/Out. I have the greatest respect for these knowledgeable and passionate Habs fans and everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

Have seen similar statements in past couple years from fans on multiple sites. Are these folks right? Have Bob Gainey / Trevor Timmins provided us with only pluggers and soft euros? I don’t think so… but how do I present an argument that supports the drafting efforts of BG and Timmins?

I thought it might be interesting to review the past five years and determine how the Habs have fared with point total success and drafting prowess… compared to the rest of the NHL and more importantly, comparing teams drafting success with similar point totals.

On the attached spreadsheet, I show five year point totals along with Hockey Future’s current organizational rankings.

Thinking HF folks research teams drafting success more than most hockey fans.

First thing I noticed was 5 of the top 10 HF ranked teams in terms of drafting are among the lowest point total teams in the league. This makes sense, if your point totals are of the bottom feeder variety, your bound to draft high and if you do well in the draft, your point totals should move up over time. Among these low ten point producers, one can see that the highest HF ranked teams are the ones that most may agree that are currently, or soon to be moving up the power rankings (St Louis, LA, Columbus, Washington). One can also see why the NYI continue to worry about attracting fans with a 29th place ranking on HF, with one of the worst point totals in the past five years across all 30 teams (can Tavares and Okoposo do it alone?)

Of the top ten point producing teams, Detroit has significantly more points than the next closest team (San Jose), and has a Stanley Cup and one game away from a second in the past five years. More importantly, and with low draft positioning each year, Detroit still manages to draft well … and manages a decent #11 HF rating.

The Habs managed 473 points the past 5 seasons, placing them 11th overall. Not bad results considering the absolute mess Bob Gainey inherited ( 2002-03 Andre Savard team was 30-35-8-9 and missed playoffs for the 4th time in 5 years) Albeit the recent and somewhat disappointing end to BG’s 5 yr plan / return to glory… these Habs have certainly moved to the upper third of the NHL in overall points. The other teams with similar point totals over the past 5 years, other than the Bruins, are rated poorly in terms of prospects. Although Carolina and Anaheim were Cup winners in this time period, the prospect cupboards are not overly stocked.

Real news here is the future looks great in Habville for years to come… according to Hockeys Future .

Habs ranked #2 overall.  

Top Prospects

1. Max Pacioretty, LW

2. Ben Maxwell, C

3. P.K. Subban, D

4. Yannick Weber, D

5. Louis Leblanc, C

6. Matt D'Agostini, RW

7. Mathieu Carle, D

8. David Fischer, D

9. Kyle Chipchura, C

10. Danny Kristo, RW

11. Joonas Nattinen, C

12. Alexei Yemelin, D

13. Steve Quailer, RW

14. Mac Bennett, D

15. Alexander Avtsin, RW

16. Ryan White, C

17. Brock Trotter, C

18. Olivier Fortier, C

19. Maxim Trunev, RW

20. Robert Mayer, G

While there may not be a Crosby, Malkin, or Ovie on this list, the Habs did not endure the ultimate embarrassment of cellar dweller status in the past five years.

In comparison, how about those Leafs? A team that has consistently moved or traded draft picks for older pricey veterans and is currently a bottom feeder without #1 picks the next couple drafts ... Ouch !! Small wonder the last time the Leafs won a cup (1967) ... it was still a bowl ... ha ha .. sorry Leaf fans.

In 1967, the Leafs and Canadiens met in the Cup finals for the last time to date, where Montreal was considered to be a heavy favourite. But Bob Pulford scored the double-overtime winner in Game 3, Jim Pappin got the series winner in Game 6, and Keon won the Conn Smythe Trophy as most valuable player of the playoffs as the Maple Leafs won the Stanley Cup in six games. The Leafs have not won the Stanley Cup since.

Or how about the current Stanley Cup champs... Pittsburgh Penguins? Only a few seasons ago, things were so desperate that Jim Balsillie the Crackberry King was attempting to hijack the team out of Steeltown … then presto…  3- 4 years of AHL like results .... welcome top picks Fleury, Staal, Gino, and Crosby … then a Stanley Cup! Any current NHL Mgmt Team could have built this team with top 3 picks. The sad part was listening to Johnny Come Lately hockey fans that rooted for the Pens as underdogs in the finals. The real team to admire, respect, and look up to if you’re a Habs fan is Detroit. This “Hockeytown” has racked up mega points over the last several years, with a solid Mgmt team, all the while dealing with afore mentioned poor draft positioning. Detroit never moved backwards to move forward … nor have the Habs in the past five years. Who knows, the Habs may have even have had Detroit type success (Slava Kozlov, Konstantinov, Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg) if BG and Trevor Timmins been guiding the Habs draft table for the past 18 years. Would we really feel good about building a championship team via the Pens method of tanking for several years? Or is it be better to see sustained growth and improvement by solid drafting, with the end result being the ability to compete for championships year after year? If so, let’s not forget the need to nurture, mentor, and support the young prospects along to maximize their potential? As an example, Zetterberg and Datsyuk were worked slowly into the Detroit organization and while both are offensive dynamos, both also learned two way play first and have been recognized for such the past several years.

It could be even worse, look at where the MN Wild are currently sitting on the prospects list … dead last in the NHL. Other than Tyler Cuma and Nick Leddy, this is hockey team without depth or much of a future. This is most certainly a contributing factor on recent mgmt turnover (Riseborogh and Lemaire out).

In the end, it is true the Habs never drafted Carter or Getzlaf, but there is solid young talent and depth across the board. Max P will eventually be a 2nd line power forward, Ben Maxwell looks to be a 2nd line center, Carle &Webber may eventually become 2nd / 3rd pair D in the NHL, Dags / Chip / White / Trotter and others are likely 3rd / 4th line NHL types. The real gems are… PK Subban who is top pairing D potential, and LeBlanc, Kristo, and Avtsin … these are all 1st line potential guys down the road … and none had a lofty top ten draft status. Cichy, Bennett, Quailer, Trunev, and Fortier are also quality picks that are likely to look very good in the next couple seasons. The Habs #2 HF ranking is well deserved.

There are likely numerous posters out there who still feel BG and TT have accomplished very little at the draft table… and that’s ok.  My sense is that the Habs are a team that has drafted a deep prospect pool and will be able to effectively compete at a high level for the next several years.

Thoughts?

Sergei moves to the "doghouse"

Why the demotion?

Sergei Kostitsyn is more of a proven NHL commodity, from a statistical perspective, than several other hopefuls still with the team.

It should be noted that Sergei is part of a legacy group of forwards retained by BG after significant expectations were not met last year. Along with brother AK, Pleks, BGL, Laps & Lats, this group is on a short leash.

A partial explanation may involve the impact of extraordinary scrutiny in Habville... where else in the NHL would a coach's reprimand to a player during a preseason scrimmage or missing a bus be considered significant news.

Another factor involved could be JM making a poorly disguised statement to players, media, ownership, fans, etc… that behavioral issues will be dealt with swiftly and decisively going forward.

Perhaps JM believes there are better #6 forward options (Max, Dags, Lats).

Or is this a partial response to concerns over the size of the top 5 forwards?

Maybe the answer here is small parts of all above and that SK can be sent to the AHL without waiver concerns.


This move is a gamble for Jacques Martin.

Considering the candidates involved in the running for the #6 forward slot … all offer different skills, but with only the pre season to review, and a serious shortage of goal scoring thus far, a forward with SK’s abilities may offer the best opportunity of this lot to immediately assist in a top 6 role.

Young guns like Pat Kane or Sam Gagner may appreciate being reunited with SK ( OHL – London Knights 2006-07) if he were to become trade bait as a result of this recent demotion. Stewing in the AHL certainly does not improve the team's trade return. Does BG want another Grabovski trade situation?

We have witnessed other Habs bolting to the KHL in recent years (Perezhogin, Valentenko) when role uncertainty was an issue. Keep in mind when SK was sent to the Dogpound last season ... most were left to believe the demotion was a result of SK’s association with “criminal” elements, which turned out to be of little or no substance. This alone would leave any player with mixed feelings about a career in Habville. Numerous posters spew the Don Cherry type rant… "go back to Belarus" or “give the job to a good Canadian boy”, but one can sense that letting assets walk away with no return is not in the best interests of the Habs franchise. If SK does move to the KHL, as rumored, then watch for residual impact on AK’s performance and future as well.

Which leads me to state… SK and AK may be a package deal going forward, similar to the Sedin(s) situation. When SK first came up to the NHL and impressed all with his vision and creativity, there was also a significant improvement in AK’s game. Although a dysfunctional merry go round of line changes was the Carbo norm this past season… one can easily see that brothers K are in tune with, and compliment each other’s skills. I would think other GM’s are aware of this. It would be unfortunate if this action diminishes the performance or trade potential of both.

The timing of the demotion, when the remainder of the team was heading for the group love fest was surprising. It may look like a new coach desperate to make a bold statement … with SK being the easiest target available. If there was substance leading to the demotion, and with the incredible media scrutiny involved, JM could have easily dealt with this in a manner respectful to the player by waiting until the end of the “bonding” session and send SK packing along with remainder of the last cuts. Hoping SK does not react poorly to this move. I wonder how other Hab players view this.

NHL & KHL GM’s alike may be interested in how this situation plays out.

Hopefully, SK tears up the AHL for several weeks and finds himself back with big brother in Habville, hungry to contribute and eager to show JM the error of his ways.

Otherwise, this could be the first major distraction in the Habs 09/10 campaign for BG and JM.

Out with the old... in with the new

Will the Habs improve based on Bob Gainey’s new summer acquisitions?

Let’s review incoming players against outgoing, focus on objective data and throw in a few subjective comments. (Stats included are 2008/09)

Chose not to include …. Brisebois, Higgins, Lang as they are replaced by internal players. (OB / Max P / Pleks)

Gomez vs. Koivu

Gomez:
• 29 yrs old
• $7.35m cap hit
• 52.4% face-off avg
• 271 shots on goal
• 58 points
• 3 power play goals
• 1 short handed goal
• 7 game winning goals
• 61 hits
• 23 blocked shots


Koivu:
• 34 yrs old
• $3.25m cap hit
• 54.1% face-off avg
• 123 shots on goal
• 50 points
• 5 power play goals
• 1 short handed goal
• 5 game winning goals
• 43 hits
• 21 blocked shots

Habs are paying twice as much $$ for Gomez, who is five yrs younger, who may not be a #1 C … and who has similar two way skills as koivu. It can be argued the Gomez trade was a trigger for the remainder of Hab UFA signings. Still, Koivu appears the better value today. If Gomez displays the #1C skills noted on his scouting report, http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/Scott_Gomez/, avg's a point per game, and shows leadership worthy of the cap coin, then this comparison takes on a much different look.

Interesting Gomez stat – Top 20 Corsi number (NYR Scott Gomez +308) http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/psh/comments/corsi_numbers_top_20/

Cammallari vs. Tanguay

Cammallari:
• 27 yrs old
• $6.0m cap hit
• 60.3% face-off avg
• 255 shots on goal
• 82 points
• 19 power play goals
• 6 game winning goals
• 22 hits
• 19 blocked shots

Tanguay:
• 29 yrs old
• UFA cap hit
• N/A face-off avg
• 76 shots on goal
• 41 points
• 3 power play goals
• 3 game winning goals
• 47 hits
• 13 blocked shots

Habs get a premium goal scorer in exchange for a set up man. Cammi is a significant asset on the PP, can also play C and has excellent face-off skills. Neither appears to spend sufficient time assisting the defensive aspects of the game. Not sure what / if Tanguay signs for … we do know Cammi was spendy. Even with $$ considerations, only a handful of Cammi type snipers in the NHL …so a potential winner. Also, the fact that Tang’s is not signed yet speaks for something here.

Interesting Cammi stats – Avg’d 15 PPG season past (4) years. 23 total points last 5 min of game (2008/09)

Gionta vs. Kovalev

Gionta:
• 30 yrs old
• $5.0m cap hit
• 248 shots on goal
• 60 points
• 3 power play goals
• 1 game winning goals
• 44 hits
• 28 blocked shots

Kovalev:
• 36 yrs old
• $5.0m cap hit
• 209 shots on goal
• 65 points
• 11 power play goals
• 4 game winning goals
• 56 hits
• 20 blocked shots

Gionta is six yrs younger, albeit ½ ft shorter. Both offensive players… Kovalev the enigmatic magician, a sharp shooter and excellent set up man, especially on the PP. Gionta is lightning quick, excellent two way skills, and throws plenty of pucks, including himself, at the net. This appears somewhat of a draw with the long term advantage possibly to Gionta, based on age ... if his small stature can withstand several additional years of NHL hits.

Interesting Gio stats – Has avg’d 247 shots over past (4) years. Has +62 plus/minus over NHL career.

T Moen vs. T Kostopolous:

T Moen:
• 27 yrs old
• $1.5m cap hit
• 101 shots on goal
• 16 points
• 3 short handed goals
• 2 game winning goals
• 171 hits
• 42 blocked shots
• 91 penalty mins

T Kostopolous:
• 30 yrs old
• $916m cap hit
• 121 shots on goal
• 22 points
• 1 short handed goal
• 0 game winning goals
• 167 hits
• 42 blocked shots
• 106 penalty mins

Fairly equal exchange here on key stats. Moen has a Ring, actually wins an occasional punch up, and is a key player in late stages of the game, thus a serious upgrade.

Interesting Moen stats - scored game-winning goals in two of Ducks four Stanley Cup Final wins.

Spacek vs. Komiserik:

Spacek:
• 35 yrs old
• $3.8m cap hit
• 130 shots on goal
• 37 points
• 38 penalty min
• 78 hits
• 126 blocked shots
• 22.16 avg time on ice

Komiserik:
• 27 yrs old
• $4.5m cap hit
• 56 shots on goal
• 11 points
• 121 penalty min
• 191 hits
• 207 blocked shots
• 20.37 avg time on ice

Apple vs. Orange. Although both have been employed as 1st pair D. Spacek brought in for offense and responsible D, while MK is a bruiser, premium shot blocker, with zero offense and a Lucic phobia. Spacek would win this hands down if comparison was based on a single year all around performance, but MK still has plenty of defensive upside, let alone years to play. A draw … for now. Watching a former 1st round pick walk, hurts… now and possibly for years of Hab vs Leafs games to come.

Interesting Spacek stats – 44 total power play points in past (2) years. Had 5 pts in 5 games vs Leafs last yr.

Mara vs. Schneider:

Mara:
• 29 yrs old
• $1.6m cap hit
• 102 shots on goal
• 21 points
• 94 penalty min
• 123 hits
• 86 blocked shots
• 18.57 avg time on ice

Schneider:
• 40 yrs old
• UFA cap hit
• 128 shots on goal
• 32 points
• 64 penalty min
• 77 hits
• 118 blocked shots
• 21.00 avg time on ice

Apple vs Orange part deux. Now talking #4D. Does anyone seriously believe Schneider, who is older than Yoda, could handle 21 mins a game in 2009 /10? Mara is signed for reasonable $$, Schneider still looking for takers. Mara provides a hair less offense than Schneider, but plenty more muscle and size. Mara should easily win this.

Gill vs. Bouillon:

Gill:
• 34 yrs old
• $2.2m cap hit
• 40 shots on goal
• 10 points
• 53 penalty min
• 78 hits
• 112 blocked shots
• 17.53 avg time on ice

Bouillon:
• 33 yrs old
• UFA cap hit
• 51 shots on goal
• 9 points
• 53 penalty min
• 122 hits
• 55 blocked shots
• 16.29 avg time on ice

Last pair D. Gill is quite spendy for this spot. However, Gill provides Habs D much needed size, an excellent shot blocker, PK man, and will provide better net clearance for Carey Price. Cube will sign with someone, is heart / soul … and a decent hitter on side boards. I would give this to Gill based on size, PK, and a recent Ring.

Interesting Gill stat - becomes the tallest (6'7") Hab ever to wear a uniform



Overall, the Habs are:
 Numerous years younger
 Faster team (with the exception of Gill)
 Gained more offense than lost (there may not be enough pucks available for the amount of shots that Gomez, Gio, and Cammi provide)
 More special teams firepower
 Slightly tougher team

The hurt:
o A summer cash orgy.. cap hit for years
o The front line players added are smaller
o How long will this group take to bond?
o Which players step up and lead team?
o No roster spots for younger players
o A number of outgoing Habs chose to sign within the division / conference ... this could cost a game or three

There have been more player and coaching changes this summer in Habland than any I recall as a fan. The odds are unlikely that all new players will be successful, but the majority appear to provide an upgrade to those departed.

Thoughts?

Gui...Gui...Gui

Numerous posts about Guillaume Latendresse across hab sites.

Half or more comments have a negative tone …"Habs only kept him with the big club because he is French Canadian". "Gui is slow, does not hit enough for his size", "not a fighter", "has not scored enough goals", "the only goals he did score were of the fire hydrant variety" … etc. "Why oh why did the Habs take Lats with the 45th pick of the 2005 draft when (insert name here) was available".

Some less negative comments suggest that if only BG had allowed Gui time in the AHL to mature, he might be the 1st or 2nd line power forward some envisioned when drafted. Truth is he was ineligible for AHL and could only have been sent back to Jr or kept with the big club.

Come on people … Gui has been an active Hab for three years and well over 200 games. Why is he not scoring 40+ goals, and doing a Milan Lucic impression?

While Lats has played (3) NHL seasons, consider this before running him out of Montreal:
• Gui is 21 years old.
• Plus / minus rating has progressively improved (-20, -2, +4)
• One PP goal in 2008/09. Majority of his goals are 5 on 5… a positive sign on this team.
• Lats and Laps formed effective 3rd line duo in 08/09, his first season on a regular line.
• The shoulder injury on Feb 01 (Bruins) cost Gui a career year for points.
• Ranked 3rd (Habs 08) for hits (140). Komi and TK were #’1 & 2.. both now with new teams.
• Gui worked on power skating and trains hard in off season to prepare for 2009/10.
• Points per game avg avg has increased each year (0.36, 0.37, 0.46)
• Other 0.46 PointsPG avg players 2008/09 … Upshall, Nylander, … cost significantly more.
• Gui signed for 2009/10 at $803,000.
• Did I mention Gui is 6’2” and 222 lbs on a team with smaller front line forwards?

Let’s revisit the 2005 draft where Gui was drafted mid second round (45th):
• Only three others in the ENTIRE draft have more goals thus far (Crosby / Kopitar / Stastny)
• Contrary to some posts, Habs did not have an opportunity for Paul Stastny, drafted #44.
• Only three others have played more games (Crosby / Vlasic / Kopitar)
• Gui is also top five in PIM’s for this draft class as well.
• Some 1st round 2005 (top 10) picks have not succeeded (Brule / Pouliot)

It is likely that Gui was somewhat overwhelmed with his status in Montreal the first couple of years, and there was certainly enough media attention to provide Lats with a show biz type spotlight beyond his years and level of execution. Yes, he is French Canadian… and there is a long history of Hab fans giving locals iconic status… (why not?) … not much a 19 – 20 yr old could do about that other than live it up right…? Well, most stories involving Gui on a personal level describe him as responsible and the father of a young child. No mention of mob connections, drug traffickers, Hell’s Angels pics, or pub crawls.

Gui now has serious competition for the “power forward” role in Montreal. Max P is a 1st round selection who has seen a quick path to success as well. Instead of viewing Lats as a redundant piece now that Max P is in the mix, let’s remember the earlier point that the top two lines could stand an injection of size. I believe having both of these players vying for the 6th spot or greater improves the Habs chances for success.

It is also possible that Gui may be a good longer term fit on the 3rd line. Does it need to be top 6 or down the road for this 2nd round pick? Gui is not making 1st / 2nd line cash and it is always handy to have size, grit, and SOFT hands on a third line.

Gui signed a one year make / break contract. This is his 4th season … which has proven to be a significant breakout year for other NHL players.
Let’s root for a successful season and dispel negative posts.

Thoughts?

Stop with the trade rumors already...

(I previously posted this item on HIO 08/05)

For all the Hab trade rumblings on HIO that occupy these dog days of summer, have we taken a close look at which players BG would really want to part with, and why?

Please note that BG has already been responsible for more player turnover in this off season than any other team in the NHL. Then add in all the coaching and support personnel changes. It is possible that it may take the majority of this season, or longer, for the team to start coming together. Do we really think BG will risk even more upheaval?

Ok … knowing the above and still in a trade frenzy? Let’s review current players and try to get a picture of what BG may be thinking (easy … right?). Keep in mind … one common trait we share with Leaf fans… the tendency to overvalue our players.

On the O side:
Gomez – BG gave up a King’s ransom to obtain Gomez and will continue to pay similar for the duration of his contract. Gomez was, however, the catalyst to entice the remainder of this makeover gang. He’s not going anywhere in the foreseeable future unless there is another BG out there.

Cammy, Gionta, Moen – Would BG truly consider parting with any of these newly signed guns? After all, we fans do know how sufficiently difficult it is to entice & sign UFA’s in Montreal.

AK / SK – Both creative & quick, with AK an explosive scoring threat. Even the Sedins did not light it up until year #5. AK/SK likely go only as a matching set. If SK were to slide further back this year, all bets are off.

Lats – Size and soft hands. Is he quick & consistent enough for a #6 forward spot? Is it enough if upside is no further than solid RW support for Laps on line #3? No significant trade return today and Habs have invested heavily in Lats (+200 games), up to one last make / break season.

Laps – Significant improvement last year. Quick, plays with an edge, improved face-off %, and works hard, the type pf player JM needs as 3rd line centre. Not likely to be included in any potential trade.

Pleks – Continuous improvement first three years in the NHL, and then slid last season. Pleks remains a solid replacement for Koivu as 2nd line C in terms of both age & cost. Strong on both ends of ice. Likely a return to 65 – 70 points with quality line mates. There are teams seeking a 2nd line C … but a major pothole to fill if traded. (Some may likely protest and say “what about Cammy as C on 2nd line” … a JM decision, so possible. We do know one thing for sure … BG hired Cammy to score goals and he has done so at a premium rate from the left side.)

Dags – Has upside to #6 forward … but requires major work on play without puck, and there may be better #6 options (Lats / Max). Shoots right which is always in short supply in the NHL. Trade chip with limited return.

BGL / Metro – no interest from other teams for expensive pugilists requiring repair or waiver wire pickups. When functioning properly, both are valuable, effective and necessary pieces to provide a winning formula.

Chip – Can he secure the 4th line centre role? Needs improvement on the draw. Signed for one year … another make / break situation. A few teams would have at least some interest due to two way work ethic and leadership attributes. Scored timely goals in AHL, but not yet with the big club. A trade “chip” with limited return.

Stewart – Similar to, currently less than … Moen. Inexpensive LW option on line #4. Trade value minimal.

Max P – Our #1 prospect. Excellent skater /Power forward … no chance being included in a trade this year.

Maxwell – Looking for opportunity to showcase #2 C skills in Habville… or elsewhere. Good two way talent, and an effective playmaker. Limited return trade chip, sitting #6 on depth chart (Gomez/Pleks/Laps/Metro/Chip)

On the D side:
Markov – Absolutely not … our best player. Life was not the same for the Habs after Grabs hit.

Spacek, Mara, Gill … no possibility of early trade … newly signed UFA’s. See Cammy, Gionta, & Moen.

Gorges - ever improving / great value / versatile / limits mistakes / brings leadership. A key #5 D who has top four upside. One of BG’s better trade returns. Not likely a trade consideration.

OB – forget the turtle move, own goal and purse snatching … take a closer look; this big D can skate, hit & clear the net… Habs likely better keeping him in a low pressure situation this year to determine if he can improve on defensive lapses and gain confidence. BG signed him 3 years for a reason. Not likely a good trade return today.

Weber- devastating RH shot, power play specialist, poised on ice demeanor, and versatile. There should be room for Weber in Habs lineup sometime this season. Trade option in 1-2 yrs, depending on PK’s growth.

Hamrlik – was mentoring presence in Calgary for Phaneuf. Excellent 1st year for Habs and a less than, but better than most, past season. A quality top four D. Third highest paid player on team. Habs now have other LD options to play # 3 or 4. Yes, a possible trading card, but expensive… so return may not impress … cap space or draft pick.

PK Subban – Much excitement / potential for this prospect. Closer up the pipe than McD was, no trades in sight.

Carle – decent young RHD currently sitting #10 D on depth chart, behind starting six, OB, Weber, and possibly PK mid season, and who has already requested a trade. At some point BG may move Carle to best service both Carle and Habs interests.

Goalies:
Price- Highest draft pick since 1984. No chance BG would consider him trade bait for next two years.

Halak – Upside to #1 goalie and proven with opportunities. Solid backup option for Price. Do Halak and agent feel he might be better positioned as number #1 potential somewhere else… probably. Habs signed Sanford for AHL role only, not as #2. Although Halak may think about a change of scenery, not likely until Habs have a better #2 option… and he is only RFA after this upcoming season.

To summarize, there does not appear to be compelling reasons for BG to move any current every day player, and no major bargaining chips if he were to want, for example, to change a 2nd line center or add #6 winger. If BG is not bargaining from a position of strength (see Gomez trade) then likely to pay more. Having said this, there are numerous trading chips further down the depth chart. The Habs are rated #2 in prospects. (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/teams/montreal_canadiens) It is possible that one or more of these assets, along with an every day player, may be in the mix by trade deadline, if the Habs are in the thick of a playoff race.

Thoughts?