Out with the old... in with the new

Will the Habs improve based on Bob Gainey’s new summer acquisitions?

Let’s review incoming players against outgoing, focus on objective data and throw in a few subjective comments. (Stats included are 2008/09)

Chose not to include …. Brisebois, Higgins, Lang as they are replaced by internal players. (OB / Max P / Pleks)

Gomez vs. Koivu

Gomez:
• 29 yrs old
• $7.35m cap hit
• 52.4% face-off avg
• 271 shots on goal
• 58 points
• 3 power play goals
• 1 short handed goal
• 7 game winning goals
• 61 hits
• 23 blocked shots


Koivu:
• 34 yrs old
• $3.25m cap hit
• 54.1% face-off avg
• 123 shots on goal
• 50 points
• 5 power play goals
• 1 short handed goal
• 5 game winning goals
• 43 hits
• 21 blocked shots

Habs are paying twice as much $$ for Gomez, who is five yrs younger, who may not be a #1 C … and who has similar two way skills as koivu. It can be argued the Gomez trade was a trigger for the remainder of Hab UFA signings. Still, Koivu appears the better value today. If Gomez displays the #1C skills noted on his scouting report, http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/Scott_Gomez/, avg's a point per game, and shows leadership worthy of the cap coin, then this comparison takes on a much different look.

Interesting Gomez stat – Top 20 Corsi number (NYR Scott Gomez +308) http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/psh/comments/corsi_numbers_top_20/

Cammallari vs. Tanguay

Cammallari:
• 27 yrs old
• $6.0m cap hit
• 60.3% face-off avg
• 255 shots on goal
• 82 points
• 19 power play goals
• 6 game winning goals
• 22 hits
• 19 blocked shots

Tanguay:
• 29 yrs old
• UFA cap hit
• N/A face-off avg
• 76 shots on goal
• 41 points
• 3 power play goals
• 3 game winning goals
• 47 hits
• 13 blocked shots

Habs get a premium goal scorer in exchange for a set up man. Cammi is a significant asset on the PP, can also play C and has excellent face-off skills. Neither appears to spend sufficient time assisting the defensive aspects of the game. Not sure what / if Tanguay signs for … we do know Cammi was spendy. Even with $$ considerations, only a handful of Cammi type snipers in the NHL …so a potential winner. Also, the fact that Tang’s is not signed yet speaks for something here.

Interesting Cammi stats – Avg’d 15 PPG season past (4) years. 23 total points last 5 min of game (2008/09)

Gionta vs. Kovalev

Gionta:
• 30 yrs old
• $5.0m cap hit
• 248 shots on goal
• 60 points
• 3 power play goals
• 1 game winning goals
• 44 hits
• 28 blocked shots

Kovalev:
• 36 yrs old
• $5.0m cap hit
• 209 shots on goal
• 65 points
• 11 power play goals
• 4 game winning goals
• 56 hits
• 20 blocked shots

Gionta is six yrs younger, albeit ½ ft shorter. Both offensive players… Kovalev the enigmatic magician, a sharp shooter and excellent set up man, especially on the PP. Gionta is lightning quick, excellent two way skills, and throws plenty of pucks, including himself, at the net. This appears somewhat of a draw with the long term advantage possibly to Gionta, based on age ... if his small stature can withstand several additional years of NHL hits.

Interesting Gio stats – Has avg’d 247 shots over past (4) years. Has +62 plus/minus over NHL career.

T Moen vs. T Kostopolous:

T Moen:
• 27 yrs old
• $1.5m cap hit
• 101 shots on goal
• 16 points
• 3 short handed goals
• 2 game winning goals
• 171 hits
• 42 blocked shots
• 91 penalty mins

T Kostopolous:
• 30 yrs old
• $916m cap hit
• 121 shots on goal
• 22 points
• 1 short handed goal
• 0 game winning goals
• 167 hits
• 42 blocked shots
• 106 penalty mins

Fairly equal exchange here on key stats. Moen has a Ring, actually wins an occasional punch up, and is a key player in late stages of the game, thus a serious upgrade.

Interesting Moen stats - scored game-winning goals in two of Ducks four Stanley Cup Final wins.

Spacek vs. Komiserik:

Spacek:
• 35 yrs old
• $3.8m cap hit
• 130 shots on goal
• 37 points
• 38 penalty min
• 78 hits
• 126 blocked shots
• 22.16 avg time on ice

Komiserik:
• 27 yrs old
• $4.5m cap hit
• 56 shots on goal
• 11 points
• 121 penalty min
• 191 hits
• 207 blocked shots
• 20.37 avg time on ice

Apple vs. Orange. Although both have been employed as 1st pair D. Spacek brought in for offense and responsible D, while MK is a bruiser, premium shot blocker, with zero offense and a Lucic phobia. Spacek would win this hands down if comparison was based on a single year all around performance, but MK still has plenty of defensive upside, let alone years to play. A draw … for now. Watching a former 1st round pick walk, hurts… now and possibly for years of Hab vs Leafs games to come.

Interesting Spacek stats – 44 total power play points in past (2) years. Had 5 pts in 5 games vs Leafs last yr.

Mara vs. Schneider:

Mara:
• 29 yrs old
• $1.6m cap hit
• 102 shots on goal
• 21 points
• 94 penalty min
• 123 hits
• 86 blocked shots
• 18.57 avg time on ice

Schneider:
• 40 yrs old
• UFA cap hit
• 128 shots on goal
• 32 points
• 64 penalty min
• 77 hits
• 118 blocked shots
• 21.00 avg time on ice

Apple vs Orange part deux. Now talking #4D. Does anyone seriously believe Schneider, who is older than Yoda, could handle 21 mins a game in 2009 /10? Mara is signed for reasonable $$, Schneider still looking for takers. Mara provides a hair less offense than Schneider, but plenty more muscle and size. Mara should easily win this.

Gill vs. Bouillon:

Gill:
• 34 yrs old
• $2.2m cap hit
• 40 shots on goal
• 10 points
• 53 penalty min
• 78 hits
• 112 blocked shots
• 17.53 avg time on ice

Bouillon:
• 33 yrs old
• UFA cap hit
• 51 shots on goal
• 9 points
• 53 penalty min
• 122 hits
• 55 blocked shots
• 16.29 avg time on ice

Last pair D. Gill is quite spendy for this spot. However, Gill provides Habs D much needed size, an excellent shot blocker, PK man, and will provide better net clearance for Carey Price. Cube will sign with someone, is heart / soul … and a decent hitter on side boards. I would give this to Gill based on size, PK, and a recent Ring.

Interesting Gill stat - becomes the tallest (6'7") Hab ever to wear a uniform



Overall, the Habs are:
 Numerous years younger
 Faster team (with the exception of Gill)
 Gained more offense than lost (there may not be enough pucks available for the amount of shots that Gomez, Gio, and Cammi provide)
 More special teams firepower
 Slightly tougher team

The hurt:
o A summer cash orgy.. cap hit for years
o The front line players added are smaller
o How long will this group take to bond?
o Which players step up and lead team?
o No roster spots for younger players
o A number of outgoing Habs chose to sign within the division / conference ... this could cost a game or three

There have been more player and coaching changes this summer in Habland than any I recall as a fan. The odds are unlikely that all new players will be successful, but the majority appear to provide an upgrade to those departed.

Thoughts?