“We have Ben Maxwell instead of Lucic. Andrei Kostitsyn instead of Carter, Getzlaff and Parise. Nobody instead of Patrice Bergeron....But Timmins is a genius. He gets us a lot of 4th line slugs”
This from one of the many great posters recently on Habs Inside/Out. I have the greatest respect for these knowledgeable and passionate Habs fans and everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
Have seen similar statements in past couple years from fans on multiple sites. Are these folks right? Have Bob Gainey / Trevor Timmins provided us with only pluggers and soft euros? I don’t think so… but how do I present an argument that supports the drafting efforts of BG and Timmins?
I thought it might be interesting to review the past five years and determine how the Habs have fared with point total success and drafting prowess… compared to the rest of the NHL and more importantly, comparing teams drafting success with similar point totals.
On the attached spreadsheet, I show five year point totals along with Hockey Future’s current organizational rankings. First thing I noticed was 5 of the top 10 HF ranked teams in terms of drafting are among the lowest point total teams in the league. This makes sense, if your point totals are of the bottom feeder variety, your bound to draft high and if you do well in the draft, your point totals should move up over time. Among these low ten point producers, one can see that the highest HF ranked teams are the ones that most may agree that are currently, or soon to be moving up the power rankings (St Louis, LA, Columbus, Washington). One can also see why the NYI continue to worry about attracting fans with a 29th place ranking on HF, with one of the worst point totals in the past five years across all 30 teams (can Tavares and Okoposo do it alone?)
Of the top ten point producing teams, Detroit has significantly more points than the next closest team (San Jose), and has a Stanley Cup and one game away from a second in the past five years. More importantly, and with low draft positioning each year, Detroit still manages to draft well … and manages a decent #11 HF rating.
The Habs managed 473 points the past 5 seasons, placing them 11th overall. Not bad results considering the absolute mess Bob Gainey inherited ( 2002-03 Andre Savard team was 30-35-8-9 and missed playoffs for the 4th time in 5 years) Albeit the recent and somewhat disappointing end to BG’s 5 yr plan / return to glory… these Habs have certainly moved to the upper third of the NHL in overall points. The other teams with similar point totals over the past 5 years, other than the Bruins, are rated poorly in terms of prospects. Although Carolina and Anaheim were Cup winners in this time period, the prospect cupboards are not overly stocked.
Real news here is the future looks great in Habville for years to come… according to Hockeys Future .
Habs ranked #2 overall.
Top Prospects
1. Max Pacioretty, LW
2. Ben Maxwell, C
3. P.K. Subban, D
4. Yannick Weber, D
5. Louis Leblanc, C
6. Matt D'Agostini, RW
7. Mathieu Carle, D
8. David Fischer, D
9. Kyle Chipchura, C
10. Danny Kristo, RW
11. Joonas Nattinen, C
12. Alexei Yemelin, D
13. Steve Quailer, RW
14. Mac Bennett, D
15. Alexander Avtsin, RW
16. Ryan White, C
20. Robert Mayer, G
In comparison, how about those Leafs? A team that has consistently moved or traded draft picks for older pricey veterans and is currently a bottom feeder without #1 picks the next couple drafts ... Ouch !! Small wonder the last time the Leafs won a cup (1967) ... it was still a bowl ... ha ha .. sorry Leaf fans.
In 1967, the Leafs and Canadiens met in the Cup finals for the last time to date, where Montreal was considered to be a heavy favourite. But Bob Pulford scored the double-overtime winner in Game 3, Jim Pappin got the series winner in Game 6, and Keon won the Conn Smythe Trophy as most valuable player of the playoffs as the Maple Leafs won the Stanley Cup in six games. The Leafs have not won the Stanley Cup since.
Or how about the current Stanley Cup champs... Pittsburgh Penguins? Only a few seasons ago, things were so desperate that Jim Balsillie the Crackberry King was attempting to hijack the team out of Steeltown … then presto… 3- 4 years of AHL like results .... welcome top picks Fleury, Staal, Gino, and Crosby … then a Stanley Cup! Any current NHL Mgmt Team could have built this team with top 3 picks. The sad part was listening to Johnny Come Lately hockey fans that rooted for the Pens as underdogs in the finals. The real team to admire, respect, and look up to if you’re a Habs fan is Detroit. This “Hockeytown” has racked up mega points over the last several years, with a solid Mgmt team, all the while dealing with afore mentioned poor draft positioning. Detroit never moved backwards to move forward … nor have the Habs in the past five years. Who knows, the Habs may have even have had Detroit type success (Slava Kozlov, Konstantinov, Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg) if BG and Trevor Timmins been guiding the Habs draft table for the past 18 years. Would we really feel good about building a championship team via the Pens method of tanking for several years? Or is it be better to see sustained growth and improvement by solid drafting, with the end result being the ability to compete for championships year after year? If so, let’s not forget the need to nurture, mentor, and support the young prospects along to maximize their potential? As an example, Zetterberg and Datsyuk were worked slowly into the Detroit organization and while both are offensive dynamos, both also learned two way play first and have been recognized for such the past several years.It could be even worse, look at where the MN Wild are currently sitting on the prospects list … dead last in the NHL. Other than Tyler Cuma and Nick Leddy, this is hockey team without depth or much of a future. This is most certainly a contributing factor on recent mgmt turnover (Riseborogh and Lemaire out).
In the end, it is true the Habs never drafted Carter or Getzlaf, but there is solid young talent and depth across the board. Max P will eventually be a 2nd line power forward, Ben Maxwell looks to be a 2nd line center, Carle &Webber may eventually become 2nd / 3rd pair D in the NHL, Dags / Chip / White / Trotter and others are likely 3rd / 4th line NHL types. The real gems are… PK Subban who is top pairing D potential, and LeBlanc, Kristo, and Avtsin … these are all 1st line potential guys down the road … and none had a lofty top ten draft status. Cichy, Bennett, Quailer, Trunev, and Fortier are also quality picks that are likely to look very good in the next couple seasons. The Habs #2 HF ranking is well deserved.
There are likely numerous posters out there who still feel BG and TT have accomplished very little at the draft table… and that’s ok. My sense is that the Habs are a team that has drafted a deep prospect pool and will be able to effectively compete at a high level for the next several years.
Thoughts?
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